Since Tsai Ing-wen was elected president, three countries have switched diplomatic recognition to the Peoples’s Republic of China (PRC): The Gambia, São Tomé and Príncipe, and most recently Panama. Instead of viewing these losses as a blow to Taiwan’s diplomatic prowess—the Taiwanese government could embrace this shock as the Japanese did when Commodore Matthew C. Perry’s fleet of Black Ships arrived in 1853. Just like the arrival of Commodore Perry helped sow the seeds for the Meiji Restoration, this may be an opportunity for Taiwan’s leaders to think critically about the shortfalls of its diplomatic efforts and reevaluate its attempts to compete with the People’s Republic of China’s “checkbook diplomacy.”
Rather than competing symmetrically with the PRC for diplomatic recognition on the international stage, Taiwan should seek to deepen defense, diplomatic and economic ties with other countries in the Asia-Pacific, specifically with Japan, Singapore, Australia, India, and the United States to counterbalance against Chinese encroachment. By forging deeper unofficial diplomatic ties with these countries, Taiwan can strengthen its position in the international community and reinforce its defense readiness. Taiwan can use its openness, unique democratic values, and progressive/socially liberal causes to its advantage.
Japan
Under Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s premiership, defense, unofficial diplomatic relations, and economic relations between Japan and Taiwan have strengthened. This led Japan and Taiwan to sign agreements on how to manage fishing rights (and avoid potential Coast Guard clashes) in the Diaoyutai/Senkakus dispute. The Japan-Taiwan relationship can also be deepened through the sharing of command and control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, and Japanese technical assistance with Taiwan’s indigenous defense industry, especially for Taiwan’s submarines. In addition, Prime Minister Abe and the Diet could seek a Japan-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement.
Earlier this year—emblematic of the deepening of Taiwan-Japan ties—the quasi-official organization that represents Taiwanese interests in Japan changed its name from the Association of East Asian Relations (亞東關係協會) to the Taiwan-Japan Relations Association (台灣日本關係協會). To reciprocate, the Japanese changed their corresponding quasi-official organization’s name from the Interchange Association, Japan (日本国財団法人交流協会) to the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association (日本台湾交流協会). According to Taiwan’s Foreign Minister David Lee, the names were changed to reflect the desire for higher-level relations between Japan and Taiwan.
Singapore
Singapore has played a very important, yet low-key, role in cross-Strait relations after the island-state gained its independence in 1965. Late Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew was known for his close relationship with President Chiang Kai-Shek and his son, President Chiang Ching-Kuo. This relationship culminated with the founding of Project Starlight (星光計畫), which has served as the backdrop for Singaporean-Taiwanese defense ties. In exchange for access to military bases in Taiwan for training, the Singaporean Armed Forces and their Taiwanese counterparts train together as well. This training exercise came under fire last year when nine Singaporean Terrex Armored Personnel Carriers were impounded in Hong Kong by PRC authorities while transiting from Taiwan to Singapore. Nonetheless, Singaporean-Taiwanese defense ties remain strong. Additionally, in 2013 Singapore and Taiwan finalized the Agreement between Singapore and the Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu on Economic Partnership (ASTEP). ASTEP serves as a Free Trade Agreement between both islands.
Australia
Relations between Australia and Taiwan are often determined by the former’s relationship with Beijing. However, Australia and Taiwan both share strong security ties with the United States and Japan. In the event of hostilities between China and Taiwan, Australia’s decision to act will depend as much on what happens in Tokyo and Washington, DC, as it will on how much it values its economic ties with Beijing. Australia’s participation in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with India, Japan, and the United States could work in Taiwan’s favor. Although Australia’s security relationship with the United States has come into question since the election of Donald Trump, there are several areas in which Australia and Taiwan could deepen ties. According to the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australia and Taiwan share strong people-to-people links and trade relations. This has taken the form of the Australian New Colombo Plan Scholarships for young Australians to study abroad in Taiwan and working holidays for Taiwanese in Australia. Economic ties remain robust, especially with regard to rare minerals and petroleum from Australia and electronics from Taiwan.
India
Since President Tsai came into office, India has played an important role in the New Southbound Policy. The goal of this policy is to enhance “trade and economic ties with countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia and the South Pacific.” India and Taiwan are uniquely placed to upgrade their unofficial relations for several reasons: 1) both are among Asia’s most dynamic democracies; 2) both maintain friendly and cordial relations with the West; 3) both are deeply religious, sharing cultural ties via Buddhism and Hinduism; 4) India’s new Act East Policy (a continuation of the Look East Policy) complements President Tsai’s New Southbound Policy; and 5) both wish to counterbalance Chinese dominance of the Asia-Pacific to varying degrees. The most complicated area of cooperation between India and Taiwan will be in defense. India recently became a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and probably does not want to agitate Beijing. However, cultural, economic, and unofficial diplomatic ties can all be expanded.
United States
After the Trump administration took power, there was a great deal of excitement among US Asia-Pacific defense specialists that there would be a golden opportunity to reinvigorate ties between the US and Taiwan. Speculation was fueled by op-eds from close advisors such as Dr. Peter Navarro and Trump’s phone call with President Tsai Ing-Wen. However, these incidents aside, there are many ways that Taiwan can strengthen its relationship with the US to counteract losing official diplomatic allies. Since the latter period of the Obama administration, and the ascension of Secretary of Defense Ash Carter to office, once low-key defense exchanges between the US and Taiwan have become more public. For example, during Taiwan’s WWII Victory Parade, American military advisors were invited to publicly sit on the review stand. The United States can also assist Taiwan with its indigenous defense industry, particularly in submarine development. In addition, this administration has stated on several occasions the importance of the US-Taiwan relationship. Thus, this Congress or this Administration could deepen economic ties through a US-Taiwan free trade agreement.
Conclusion
Instead of viewing the loss of Panama, São Tomé and Príncipe, and The Gambia as a blow to national prestige, Taiwan should take it for what it is—a lesson that the pragmatic diplomacy of the early 1990s is outdated. Taiwan should seek to deepen defense, diplomatic and economic ties with other countries in the Asia-Pacific, specifically Australia, India, Japan, Singapore, and United States to counterbalance Chinese encroachment on Taiwan’s international space. The maintenance of diplomatic allies in the South Pacific, Central America, the Caribbean, Africa, and Europe should continue, but strengthening ties to powerful neighbors and potential partners in the Asia-Pacific should be prioritized.
Taiwanese should take solace that the loss of Panama does not necessarily translate into a domino-effect wherein the island’s 20 remaining allies will switch diplomatic recognition to China. Panama was a unique case for Beijing, due to the importance of the Panama Canal and growing Chinese investment in the small country. However, Taipei should learn from this incident. The loss of Panama can serve to reinvigorate the island’s strategic thinking about how best to maintain its presence on the international stage—officially and unofficially—by deepening unofficial ties with larger partners in the Asia-Pacific.
The main point: The loss of official relations with Panama should serve as a lesson for Taiwan that the pragmatic diplomacy of the early 1990s is outdated. Taiwan should seek to deepen defense, diplomatic and economic ties with other countries in the Asia-Pacific, specifically Australia, India, Japan, Singapore, and United States to counterbalance Chinese encroachment on Taiwan’s international space.
Correction: An earlier version of this article inaccurately noted that Taiwan lost diplomatic relations with The Gambia after Tsai Ing-wen was elected president in January 2016. In fact, The Gambia broke diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 2013 but re-established diplomatic ties with the PRC in March 2016.
