Guatemala is one of 12 countries that still maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Republic of China (Taiwan) has constantly faced proactive PRC efforts to pick off its remaining diplomatic allies. Nevertheless, Taiwan has preserved diplomatic relations with Guatemala and others by remaining a committed, loyal, and proactive partner, and by supporting the political and developmental needs of its allies. These countries, in turn, support the island by showing the world that Taiwan is a sovereign, autonomous, and legitimate state, and lobbying for its participation in multilateral institutions.
Despite growing pressure from the PRC—as well as the example of multiple neighbors in Latin America switching recognition to the PRC in recent years—Guatemala’s president Bernardo Arévalo has perpetuated deep diplomatic engagement with Taiwan. In doing so, Arévalo has obtained crucial economic assistance from Taiwan and improved relations with Washington, which is stepping up efforts to promote Taiwan’s diplomatic standing globally.
A Critical Ally Amid Rising PRC Aggression
Guatemala represents a critical ally for Taiwan in Central America, a region in which Beijing has made major political, economic, and diplomatic inroads. Despite Mexico and most of South America severing ties with Taiwan and establishing ties with China in the 1970s and 1980s, all Central American countries maintained diplomatic relations with Taiwan at the turn of the 21st century. In 2007, however, Costa Rica was the first to switch its recognition; and after an 8-year “diplomatic truce” between Beijing and President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of Taiwan’s Kuomintang Party, Panama did the same in 2017. El Salvador followed suit in 2018, Nicaragua in 2021, and Honduras in 2023. Today, Guatemala and Belize are Taiwan’s only two remaining Central American allies.
For decades, Beijing has pressured Guatemala’s government to ditch relations with Taiwan. In 1997, China vetoed a United Nations resolution to send peacekeepers to Guatemala to help implement conflict-ending peace accords—all because of Guatemala’s recognition of Taiwan. In recent years, Beijing has given luxurious, all-expenses-paid trips to China to Guatemalan journalists; many have since endorsed pro-China viewpoints in the Guatemalan press. Since the Arévalo Administration took office in January 2024, these efforts have only intensified. In May 2024, Chinese authorities banned shipments of Guatemalan coffee, sugar, and macadamia nuts from entering Chinese markets, an apparent punishment for a video call between Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo and Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) that had occurred four days earlier.
Guatemala is not the only locus for Beijing’s anti-Taiwan campaign in Latin America. In August 2023, Nicaraguan diplomats led a campaign that stripped Taiwan of its permanent observer status in the Central American Parliament (PARLACEN), a multilateral parliament representing all Central American countries. Taiwan had been a permanent observer since 1999. Notably, Nicaragua’s government is a consolidated dictatorship under Daniel Ortega—who has committed blatant electoral fraud and human rights abuses against political opponents. (Ortega has also proposed admitting Russia as an observer to another Central American multilateral organization, a measure other countries rejected due to Russia’s unprovoked 2022 invasion of Ukraine.) In December 2024, Paraguay’s government—the only South American government to recognize Taiwan—expelled a Chinese envoy from the country for meeting with legislators and attempting to undermine Paraguayan relations with Taiwan. Within this context, Guatemala has been a bulwark against China’s intensifying efforts to isolate Taiwan diplomatically, during a period of escalating Chinese military and gray-zone aggression against the island.
In this context, Arévalo has proven a loyal and strong ally to Taiwan. The son of Guatemala’s first democratically elected president (Juan José Arévalo, who led Guatemala from 1945 to 1951) Guatemala’s current leader is a fervent advocate for democracy, both at home and abroad. His campaign centered on eradicating rampant corruption, and he has enacted policies to address poverty and irregular migration. Externally, he has condemned both Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and Venezuela’s dictatorship. Arévalo has long supported Taiwan’s democratic system, and notably visited Taipei in 1994 as Guatemala’s deputy minister of foreign affairs. When running for president in June 2023, Arévalo stated that he had “no interest” in changing bilateral relations with Taipei, and he has held to this commitment. In doing so, he continues a long history of Guatemala supporting Taiwan’s democracy and diplomacy.
Guatemala’s Developmental Gains from Taiwan Relations
In return, Taiwan has long supported Guatemala’s economic development. In 2007, then-president Oscar Berger signed an agreement with Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), through which Taiwan provided USD 40 million in highway renovation funds, USD 10 million for prison upgrades, and 25 new scholarships for Guatemalans to study at Taiwanese universities. In the following years, Taiwan sent multiple advisory missions to help grow Guatemalan agricultural exports. In response to a devastating earthquake in 2012 and severe droughts in 2014 and 2015, Taiwan’s government rebuilt bridges and provided food in afflicted areas. In April 2023, Arévalo’s predecessor, Alejandro Giammattei, hosted then-Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) in Guatemala, and together they inaugurated a newly renovated, Taiwanese-funded hospital with state-of-the-art medical equipment. Bilateral commerce and investment were also growing. That same month Giammattei’s Economy Minister commented at an investment forum in Taipei: “It has been a great alliance.”
Image: Then-President of Guatemala Alejandro Giammattei and then-Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen appear together during the former’s visit to Taiwan (April 25, 2023). (Image source: ROC Presidential Office)
This alliance has continued under Arévalo with new, forward-looking development initiatives. In May 2024, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs launched the Diplomatic Allies Prosperity Project, which promotes economic development in Taiwan’s diplomatic partners by developing technologically-innovative sectors including digital governance, smart medicine and agriculture, sovereign artificial intelligence, and sustainable tourism. In May 2025, Taiwan hosted 28 Guatemalans—including university students, engineers, and educators—for vocational training in Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, which Arévalo commended. Taiwan’s International Cooperation and Development Fund (ICDF, 國際合作發展基金會) presently operates 8 projects in Guatemala: spanning infrastructure development, educational programs, healthcare personnel training, medical technology, agricultural advisory missions, and natural disaster response preparation. These projects build on 24 similar completed ones, demonstrating a sizeable and sustained commitment from Taiwan to support Guatemala’s development.
These areas of mutual benefit were on display during Arévalo’s visit to Taiwan in June this year. In Taipei, he met with President Lai, who stated during the visit, “We encourage even more Taiwanese enterprises to expand investments in Guatemala to leverage its geographic location, natural resources, and high-quality human resources.” Arévalo concurred, commending Taiwan’s government for its support for Guatemalan democracy and development, and pledged his support for “continu[ing] to strengthen bilateral relations based on the solid foundations built on the past.”
In September, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (外交部) pledged over USD 32 million more in Latin American assistance projects. These funds are designated for infrastructure construction and professional training. Given the elimination of USAID under the second Trump Administration—which used to provide tens of millions annually in developmental projects to Guatemala—Taiwan’s economic support has become increasingly critical to Guatemala’s development.
Taiwan: A Crucial Commercial Market
Guatemala and Taiwan’s economic relations encompass much more than developmental assistance. As a large and yet still-growing market for Guatemalan exports, Taiwan is a critical commercial partner. After signing a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) in 2005, Guatemalan exports to Taiwan increased by 125 percent within one year. This year, Taiwan has purchased a record-high 720,000 kilograms of Guatemalan coffee, and Guatemala became Taiwan’s fourth-largest coffee supplier. This figure is no small feat for Guatemala, a country with a population of just 15 million that competes in global coffee markets against Costa Rica, Colombia, Brazil, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and other major exporters.
While many claim that maintaining relations with Taiwan leads to missed opportunities in Beijing’s 1.4 billion-strong consumer market, this argument has not held up in practice. For example, Guatemala’s neighbor Honduras switched recognition to China in March 2023, alleging that greater economic opportunities with Beijing would follow. In the two years since that decision, Honduras’s shrimp industry—which before sold nearly 40 percent of its exported product to Taiwan through preferential trade measures—has been devastated, with more than 10,000 workers losing employment.
Were Guatemala to switch recognition to the PRC, its coffee, macadamia, sugar, and other exports would have to compete in Chinese markets with similar products from nearby Asian countries—all of which benefit from much lower transportation costs. On the other hand, Guatemala holds preferential access to Taiwanese markets, a commercial opportunity that would be hard to replace if it switched diplomatic allegiance to Beijing. Given that Guatemala currently suffers from a trade deficit with the PRC—where the PRC is the source of 13 percent of the country’s imports, but the destination for less than 1 percent of its exports—Guatemala’s commercial outlook with China seems dim.
Consecutive Guatemalan presidents have seemed content with their relations with Taipei, believing that a switch would run counter to Guatemala’s interests through the loss of its economic relationship with Taiwan. In spite of challenges, Guatemala’s economy consistently achieves higher annual economic growth than its Central American neighbors (projected to reach 3.9 percent this year), and the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio across Latin America. On the other hand, the most-indebted countries in Latin America—Argentina, Ecuador, and Venezuela—have accepted copious amounts of Chinese financing in the 21st century. Guatemalan decision-making appears to be paying off.
Building Ties with Taipei and Washington Simultaneously
Strengthening relations with Taiwan has also improved Guatemala’s relationship with its most important political and economic partner: the United States. Since 2018, US representatives of both major political parties have expressed opposition to Central American countries ditching Taiwan and approaching China. To Beijing’s displeasure, in March 2020, Trump signed into law the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act, which formally endorses US efforts to bolster Taiwan’s diplomatic standing and encourages the US government to consider “altering” relations with countries whose actions “undermine the security or prosperity or Taiwan.” In September this year, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that Washington would enact visa restrictions on Central American citizens that “are intentionally acting on behalf of the Chinese Communist Party and threatening our region’s stability.” US officials have made it abundantly clear to Central American countries that strengthening ties with Beijing jeopardizes ties with Washington.
Conversely, US officials have also made clear their desire to explore more engagement with Guatemala and other countries that still back Taiwan. In January 2020, Guatemala hosted the first quadrilateral talks with Taiwanese, Honduran, Guatemalan, and US officials—including US Development Finance Corporation CEO Adam Bohler, Guatemala and Honduras’s presidents, and multiple foreign ministers—to discuss cooperation in commerce, infrastructure, investment, and multilateral partnerships. According to a March 2024 press release during a White House meeting with Arévalo, then-Vice President Kamala Harris “commended Guatemala’s support for other democracies around the world,” an apparent reference to Guatemala’s backing of Taiwan. On his first overseas trip as US Secretary of State in February this year, Marco Rubio flew to Guatemala and sincerely thanked Arévalo for backing Taiwan, stating: “We thank you very much for your support and the relationship that you already have with Taiwan, another democracy… We’ll do everything we can to help with that. We are going to support it not only being diplomatic recognition, but for it to also have economic benefits, to do anything possible to bring investment in the economy, Guatemala’s developing economy.” As Rubio’s remarks demonstrate, by maintaining relations with Taipei, Guatemala has improved its relations with Washington—which in return seeks to do more for Guatemala.
The United States has long been Guatemala’s number one trade partner and source of capital, with US-based migrants’ remittances making up 19 percent of Guatemala’s GDP. The United States has also been a critical strategic and political partner, cooperating with Guatemalan officials for counternarcotics, security cooperation, and migration management. The United States even launched a diplomatic offensive to ensure Arévalo’s inauguration in January 2024 against attempts by corrupt officials seeking to annul his election. Arévalo thus has economic and political incentives to maintain positive relations with Washington. Backing Taiwan has clearly helped him achieve this.
The case of Guatemala shows that picking Taiwan over China does not mean missing out on economic opportunities. Instead, diplomatic recognition for the Republic of China (Taiwan) can enable a country to benefit from both Taipei’s generosity and Washington’s gratitude.
The main point: By maintaining relations with the Republic of China (Taiwan), Guatemala under President Bernardo Arévalo has resisted aggressive PRC pressure to switch its diplomatic recognition. In doing so, Guatemala has benefitted from generous developmental assistance, preferential commercial access in Taiwanese markets, and improved relations with Washington—where influential policymakers from both US parties appreciate Guatemala’s backing of Taiwan.
